The challenge survival simulator
10,000 simulated attempts of your stats against the firm's exact rules.
What it does
- Enter the five numbers that describe how you trade: win rate, average win, average loss, risk per trade, trades per day — plus optional streakiness and fat-tailed outcome sizes.
- The engine replays thousands of independent challenge attempts, checking the daily-loss and drawdown rules after every simulated trade and the target, minimum-days, consistency, and time-limit rules at the end of each day.
- You get the full picture: pass probability, which rule ends most attempts and on which day, an equity fan chart of all paths, and a sensitivity table across risk sizes.
Why it matters
A challenge fee buys you exactly one draw from a distribution. Marketing shows you the winning draws; the distribution is what you actually purchased. Seeing all of it — the passes, the failures, and the timing — is the difference between an informed purchase and a lottery ticket.
What you get
You walk into an evaluation knowing what typically happens to traders with your exact statistics under that firm's exact rules — or you find out, for free, that the numbers you hoped were good enough usually aren't.
All outputs are descriptive probabilities of scenarios you define — educational tool, not investment advice.