A challenge fee is a bet. See the odds before you place it.

Prop-firm evaluations are priced like products, but they behave like lottery tickets with skill-dependent odds. The fee buys you exactly one draw from a distribution of outcomes — and the firm's marketing only ever shows you the winning draws.

The arithmetic nobody puts on the pricing page

If your true pass probability under a firm's rules is p, the expected number of attempts before a pass is 1/p. That single line of arithmetic is most of what this product exists to make visible. For any pass probability you care to assume:

Illustrative arithmetic on assumed probabilities — not a prediction of any person's results. Your simulated probability depends entirely on the statistics you enter.

What you get from ten minutes here

• Your number, not the industry's. Widely cited pass rates are averages over everyone. The simulator computes a distribution for a trader with your win rate, sizing, and frequency under your firm's exact rules.
• The failure mechanism, named. Whether attempts like yours typically end on the daily loss limit, the trailing drawdown, or the clock — and around which day.
• The shape of the rules themselves. Two programs with identical targets can produce very different outcome distributions because of drawdown mechanics alone. Seeing that before purchasing is the entire point.

What we deliberately are not

Propability gives no advice, sells no signals, and never tells you what to trade or risk. Every output is a descriptive probability of a scenario you defined. The methodology is fully public, the firm presets are dated and versioned, and the sensitivity table never marks any row as "optimal" — that restraint is a feature, not a limitation.

Run your numbers free See worked examples

Educational simulation of user-entered parameters — not investment advice. Outcomes are descriptive probabilities of the scenario you defined, not predictions.